SA 2023 Recession/Depression Doomsday Outlook
Incoming 2023 Summer Analysts and Current Bankers in the Industry,
I know we have had a few posts like this already, but as we start to get closer to the upcoming summer, I would like to get everyone's opinions on the current outlook for the next couple of years or so.
I am a 2023 SA and would consider myself someone who pays relatively close attention to world news and the current variability in thewe are all experiencing. However, I find it a little odd with respect to just the sheer quantity of people that don't seem to realize what is happening and the true extent of the potential nightmare that could ensue over the next year or so. I am also surprised at the number of people on Wall Street, who either do not seem to believe a (Worst Case Scenario) 1930s level of depression is possible or just stick to the position that we will see a soft landing over the next year with maybe a mild (some of them, of course, argue that we are already in one). As always, it is essentially impossible to truly predict what and overarching economy will "truly" look like over the next say 2-3 years, but as an incoming SA 2023, one can't help but worry a little bit.
My take: I will try to make this brief, but it appears to me that no matter how much the Fed continues to hike rates, they cannot seem to hit their "2%" target. Inflation really hasn't moved much despite the significant rate hikes. It appears to me that they will either change their target to 3% and get back to running the printer, or Powell will literally have to absolutely crush the economy completely, which would put us back to potentially a full-blown depression.
I am truly curious as to:
1) How are you (2023 SAs) feeling about this upcoming summer (hours, overall experience, return offers, etc.)
2) For those of you who are already in the industry:
What are some things you have noticed (say compared to 2021's free money pump)?
What is your honest opinion and outlook for the next 3 years or so?
Finally, aside from being as diligent, excited, and driven as possible, what would be your advice to incoming 2023 SAs for this summer?
More than anything I am just curious to see what everyone's opinions are going forward and how we are all feeling about the current economic environment.