If you were in your early to mid 20s and for the first time able to afford residential real estate, what US city do you think would create you the most wealth through appreciation over the next 15 years if you were to acquire multiple properties as you are financially able?
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Comments ( 108 )
This is purely subjective so I'll take a shot at it. Let me preface by saying my criteria for investing in a market would be it has be a location that has insatiable demand but will inherently have limitations on supply due to geographical factors (surrounded by water). Political environment could help but I wouldn't invest in a market solely based off of connections. Also, some may argue that one doesn't have to rent an expensive apartment in the urban area. Perhaps but you have to realize that millenials and Gen Z are huge proponents of living a decent distance from work (no more than 30 mins) so this excludes suburbs and exurbs.
1. Miami - tremendous potential due to proximity to Latin America (access to foreign capital - Brazil/Argentina), warm weather albeit hurricane season is scary, affordability relative to NY /SF/LA, no state income tax , and I think the govt down there is realizing they'll have to build mass transit eventually because Miami is too disconnected and corporate firms are going to pressure the city to build up the infrastructure to allow for their employees to commute to the office. This is probably another 7-10 years away from becoming a reality but that's why it is good to get in early.
2. Boston - probably the smartest city in America if you're going by the amount of notable institutions of higher educations in the country. It's economy is incredibly diversified - life sciences, tertiary hub for finance, education, consulting, tech, shipping, etc. So there's definitely a high concentration of high-income workers. Politics seems like it is becoming an issue in Boston with rent control and the new mayor but we'll see how it plays out.
3. San Diego - this is my sleeper pick. It has wonderful weather, is a strategic location for logistics along the border and shipments from Asia. It's 2 hours from LA for those who rather not be involved in the Hollywood life but want to have the optionality to visit. It's a growing life sciences market. I haven't heard too much about tech in the area but would make sense as a place where people migrate to away from SF. Finance bros typically follow tech migration but doubt the big financial firms would set up any meaningful presence in the city.
4. Seattle - Just throwing this in because I like the feel of this city. It has a highly educated workforce, a plethora of corporate giants are HQed in the area, and has a lot of natural scenery. I think the city realizes it had a mass transit issue and is working to create a robust system. Would actually be an amazing economic idea to connect Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver with high speed rail.
Last point, I think folks who are investing in inland markets such as Atlanta, Dallas, Nashville, and Charlotte are in for a rude awakening if the strategy is to hold. I consider these markets to be fool's gold. The way I see it, these markets are surging now due to the mass COVID migration from large cities in a short amount of time. In another 4-6 years, these markets will probably have ample supply to meet the demand. Those markets do not have any geographical or political limitations. They're seen as business friendly and the environment allows them to build pretty much anywhere considering there's no geographical barrier surrounding these cities. Pretty soon, replacement costs will be lower than buying an existing asset.
The only one that I might disagree slightly on is Atlanta. Of those four, it is the hardest to build in and supply levels in ATL are nowhere near the other three as a % of its existing stock.
Hm hard to build because of zoning and political environment? And My point is ATL has no geographic limitation on supply the same way that Miami, Boston, San Diego, and Seattle do. And from what I hear anecdotally (I could be wrong), majority of folks who move to ATL do not move to to the urban core. They go to Buckhead, Sandy Springs, East Point, etc.
Disagree on Seattle and San Diego. Both are priced extremely high and due to this they are starting to see migration out of these areas. Doesnt help that the state governments are also a pain to deal with. Amazon saw this coming a mile away and thats why they decided to put their HQ2 in NoVa.
If I were a betting man, I'd say NoVa and most Florida markets will excel. NoVa has been pulling in corporations from around the country. The governor is pro-business Republican (ex-private equity), probably one of the smartest republican governors and does believe in things like Covid, so he's a realist. Boeing , Amazon, and plenty of other companies are being pulled to the area. Also helps that you have a great metro system, international airports, and are adjacent to the nations capital. Housing prices in Fairfax and Loudoun still cheaper than Seattle/Austin/San Diego, etc. Plus add in the fact that Loudoun county has the highest median income in the country and you got so much potential.
Next up is probably Florida in general, maybe Tampa more so. The prices are still reasonable, but yes Covid pushed these higher once WFH became a big thing and people moved south. I don't think Miami has the boom potential like Tampa because in part Miami prices are already nearing prices or beating prices of most metros. Tampa is also seeing good expansion northward in some really nice communities.
Really good one re: NoVa.
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Learn moreNOVA all the way. Look at the current and planned development at Reston Town Center by BXP, and all of the other massive places planned by other large developers along the entire metro line out of DC.
Great schools in the area as well! If you want more tertiary markets near NOVA, check out Frederick County and Howard County MD. Frederick has great commute paths into DC/Bethesda/NOVA on 270, and a growing downtown, not to mention great schools.
Howard County is similar to a Fairfax, but with more supply constraints considering a ton of the land is off limits per "forever farmland" restrictions. Consistently a targeted place to raise a family for high income individuals in the DMV area due to its equidistance to DC and Baltimore, and amazing school system. Howard has seen steady home price growth over the years. It may not be the home run pick, but easily at least a double over the next decade.
can bring supply to the market pretty easily in NoVA and people are having less kid diminishing the value of a good school district
Wanted to ping this to see how much Amazon's recent decision to pause HQ2 impacts your view of this market.
Don't @ me
Definitely agree with Boston, the barriers to entry are so high in this market it's very difficult to build anything new, especially in Boston proper. That was the reason why SF boomed over the last two decades, SF only declined in attractiveness because Covid basically emptied the city out.
Surprised to see Miami on the list. I've heard about buildings with 60 apartments where only 10 apartments have families living there and the rest are used only as vacation rents.
I'm in Nashville. You can tell this city is overbuilding itself just by looking around.
Speaking from a completely engineering perspective, I recently did a risk analysis for a client to figure out the suitability of building in Miami in the long term. Based on my findings its going to get very very expensive, sea level rise at the current rate will have the city at or below sea level which would mean having to install storm water systems, detention basins and drainage systems worth well over a few million bucks for a average 50 unit multifamily building. In addition you have to hope and pray that the city takes a proactive role to fix its own flood prevention and drainage systems because it certainly won't be able to withstand conditions that are coming up. From a cost perspective Miami has its list of headaches coming up but if infrastructure keeps up then maybe it will work.
Disagree about CLT/ NC in general. Politically neutral state with an endless amount of companies moving here, temperate weather with great beaches, mountains, relatively affordable COL. Raleigh/ triangle have one of the biggest research campuses in the nation with DUKE, UNC, WAKE FOREST, NC STATE, all in the same area. Apple is building their first east coast campus there, VINFAST (affordable EV) building their first campus in the US there, Microsoft is investing in land in Charlotte. Bank of America and Wells Fargo are here. There's a lot going on, I doubt the pace will slow done and there's an affordable housing crisis in Raleigh/ Charlotte.
Also, while there's no obvious barriers to growth the suburbs are moving out to the hinterlands at this point. From Ft. Mill, SC to Uptown Charlotte at Rush Hour is 45 minutes, Belmont is 30, Cornelius is 45. Raleigh's eastern suburbs are now pushing into what was cornfields 5-10 years ago and both Clayton and Wendell are 30 out with traffic. Johnston County is experiencing rapids growth. I'm bullish on some of the small towns that haven't yet become suburbs of these cities.
San Diego definitely isn't a sleeper pick, pretty big $ involved.
Miami
Favorable tax regime
Appealing / balanced state politics
Attractive climate drawing more North-easterners than any other state
Attractive value proposition RE: real estate affordability and general affordability relative to all other major U.S. metros / cities
Burgeoning tech / white collar jobs footprint due to firms establishing presence because of aforementioned tax regime
Remote work demographic shift drawing more white collar professionals
Abundance of real estate developers pouring more money into the city than virtually any other city today which has the dual effect of drawing many Fortune 500s to establish a significant presence in the city
+1 for miami. Tampa as well
Big agree on Tampa. Tampa over Seattle on that list IMO.
Charleston. Wont see the MOST appreciation, but market will fare quite well IMO.
Charleston is a fantastic city. Given the lack of industry diversity, it wouldn't strike me as the safest SE city for steady price appreciation .
IMO, Savannah might outpace it in that regard due to the Port of Georgia's growth.
I'm bullish on outskirts of savannah (for a more opportunistic market). Large military base around the area, good schools in some of the neighboring districts, and low COL, and it's gorgeous.
Anyone have thoughts on Kansas City? A large number of quality employers in the area, the influx of supply seems to be slowing down, still solid population growth, and the rent levels are still very affordable for people moving from HCOL metros.
Others have mentioned it above, but Northern Virginia is killer in terms of location. Home prices are expensive but still lag behind other major metropolitan areas, especially factoring in how safe and amenitized the region is and how strong schools are. While I haven't looked for myself I have heard that median rent as a % of median income is actually quite low in Nova compared to other national markets.
Rosslyn-Ballston corridor is plain awesome. Metro is actually a decent form of public transit, especially on VA side. Overall just a very strong blend of quality of life and cost to live (not calling it cheap). Extremely high levels of education and income anchored by federal government across river and business friendly counties. The catch is that the people here absolutely blow. I would want to monitor oversupply/overbuilding in the next 5-10 years too.
Agreed, I live in the NoVA area currently, and love it. It's a nice place, with enough attractions of a big city/close enough to DC, but without all the downsides,,yet.
One thing I really do despise is the people, as you mentioned. Unless you run in top diplomat circles (which is DC not NoVA) the vast majority of people you'll meet will be cultural-less basic federal consultants and tech workers. The need of security clearances to work a majority of fed adjacent jobs, also pre selects for boring people, which isn't a bad thing post 35, but certainly isn't similar to the energetic scene found in singapre/ HK /London/ NYC .
Natural beauty is also left a bit wanting. Loudoun country is quite the drive, and IMO, the east coast is just fucking uglier than the west.
But it's a good place to raise kids, no doubt about that. Good place for employment too as the region is basically recession proof.
The best people here are tech salesmen and construction guys, they don't give a shit what you do for a living, where you went to school, or how you vote; but know how to have fun.
Natural beauty isn't bad for an East coast town, especially if you're willing to drive for it. But no it doesn't stack up to West coast cities.
I really do love it here though. Have never visited elsewhere and been jealous of layout or infrastructure.
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I'd be interested in Richmond. Interesting placement geographically. Never experienced the boom that the southeastern cities did. Dirt cheap land and rents. Population growth numbers are stronger there than NoVA. Way riskier than other markets mentioned but could see bets paying off.
A little surprised at all the Miami comments. Miami is a notoriously cyclical market and the long term prospects are awful. Cost of living is going to absolutely skyrocket given the effects of global climate change. Who wants to live in state that is battered by hurricanes every year? Who wants to live in a city that might be underwater in 10 years? The reasons to live in Florida generally have exceptionally little to do with urban attractions and more to do with weather and tax regime, neither of which Miami is particularly well placed vs the rest of the state to exploit. The politics (in Florida in general) get more and more deranged. All well and good to talk about major infrastructure projects that might make the city more livable, but Florida is known as a low tax state, and the aging retiree population has historically shown little interest in paying for things like schooling or infrastructure, and that will likely continue. Historically, Miami goes through boom and bust cycles because it's a place for people to buy second/investment homes; the whole "lets everyone go to Florida" exodus in early COVID saw a major bounce back, because a lot of wealthy urbanites realized living in Florida full time kinda sucks.
Personally, I think good bets are secondary cities in the north and northeast, especially ones that used to be more prominent. Cleveland, Pittsburgh, etc. Places with strong in-place infrastructure, excellent healthcare, relatively little to worry about in terms of extreme weather/climate change, centrist governments, low housing costs (at the moment), etc.
I guarantee you Miami won't be underwater in 10 years. Maybe the keys but even then it's a reach. Deranged politics? The population loves the government. Sure cost of living will go up but compared to other large cities it's peanuts. That's what happens when a city grows right?
Biggest risk are the hurricanes and flooding but guess what you have plywood and hurricane shutters. Voila. You obviously been to Miami like three times in your life
Right, but the appeal of Miami is, in part, the low cost of living. When the cost of living goes up (and again, it has nothing to do with the size of the city in this instance and everything to do with the growing cost of global climate change)
You have no fucking clue what you're talking about. Hurricanes do billions of dollars in damage when they make landfall. This isn't an issue of "I'm going to die in a Hurricane" it's "my insurance premiums are going to be tens of thousands of dollars and I won't be able to afford a home in Miami/Florida".
So from a real property investment standpoint, Florida is set to see massive increases in running costs, which makes it (to my mind) a bad bet for major appreciation
It won't be underwater but its a multimillion dollar headache to keep it above water. What most people don't know is that every city on the East Coast is not underwater right now due to some very good flood prevention and storm water systems, but the once in a hundred year storm they were designed for are occurring very often and at one point it will become way too expensive to replace them and keep up ( or we won't have the tech to keep up ). I am a engineer and I work with designing those storm water systems and I have seen some developers starting to incorporate the risk of loosing landmass to sea level rise based on current conditions.
Miami actually has a pretty good public transit system in the form of metro, buses and the trolleys and they have extremely good medical care as well so I think you're off base on the infrastructure piece here.
"Deranged politics" is a very odd statement because the residents of the Miami and the state are voting. They get what they wish for, even if it's not what you want.
Even if Miami actually goes underwater, the city will just shift to gondolas and ferries and businesses will run on higher floors of all their buildings. There's simply too much money in the area that people will just abandon the city and leave.
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Is it well-utilized? The transit infrastructure, I mean. I've always been under the impression it was like a dozen stations serving a very niche need downtown, not really a commuter system or one designed to replace autos.
Just because people are voting for it, doesn't make it rational or "not deranged". Most Soviet citizens supported the communist regime, doesn't mean it was a rational system. Just because a bunch of nutjobs think banning books is a good idea doesn't mean it actually is a good idea.
I'm not claiming Miami is going to be a desolate waste in the next 15 years. The question was "what city will see the most residential appreciation" and for all of the reasons I mentioned, I think Miami is a bad candidate. The increase in operating costs from a climate change/extreme weather perspective alone will be a huge headwind. When your insurance premiums double, it makes it a lot less valuable to own.
Yes, it is fairly well utilized. You can get around and have a very good quality of life in Miami with no car. The population density of Miami is quite high, meaning that a lot of areas are fairly walkable. It's not like a city like Nashville that has some "public transit" on paper but is more or less useless.
You were mentioning how the politics would effect property values, but I'm saying it won't because the people moving there clearly don't think the politics are problematic or extreme like you do. There are tons of multi-million dollar properties that continue to appreciate as we speak. As long as there are enough wealthy people who find Miami to be desirable (and there are) politics is irrelevant.
Insurance premiums will definitely rise but does it matter? Miami has certain pros that are only comparable to LA. Regarding hurricanes, people build and design properties in such a way to resist hurricanes. Im not sure if you've been to Miami but a lot of the properties along the beach are high rises. They aren't easily getting damaged even in tough conditions.
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Sounds like you're a woke boy that's pissed that queer studies won't be shoved down kids throats. That's why you don't like Miami lmaoooo
You can't even entertain the idea for a millisecond that someone would want to live in a place that isn't the bubble you have spent your entire life.
Is this meant to be a response to me? Because it's a complete non-sequiter.
Florida is notorious for being a great place to live for people from the Northeast. I'm a Jew from New York - moving to Florida is essentially my destiny one way or another, so it's got nothing to do with me not wanting to leave my "bubble"
But the question is "what is a place where real estate will appreciate over the next 15 years" not "best places to live/retire". The massive increase in the cost of owning property in Florida as global climate change continues is going to be a major headwind for price appreciation in hurricane-prone areas.
As someone who actually likes Pittsburgh, not sure I'd highlight it as somewhere to bet on residential appreciation.
It's too late because it's already happening. The tech industry is starting to boom in Pittsburgh and expect within time for the working class to be priced out and it turn into another corporate city.
Now it will take some time of course, since the city is made to hold about a million or so and only 1/3 of that resides there today. But it will happen particularly in the city core and areas where an ounce of culture exists. It's going to be the first rust belt city to go the way of Dallas, Austin, Miami, Denver etc. Enjoy your city while it lasts.
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Pittsburgh has been a massive success story the last twenty years as it has reinvented itself as a biotech hub.
Has the narrative shifted from Global Warming to Climate Change after we have had the coldest winter in recent memory? And isn't the climate always changing?
Lol. I'm sure all of your in depth Facebook research is serving you well in life.
Disagree on a few points:
1st, you're overstating hurricane damage. And even insurance premiums. I've done quite a bit of work in Miami and the price is rising but not as much as you say. Just remember hurricane andrew destroyed Miami and the city was rebuilt in a decade, I do think the contingencies in place are the best in the country to combat hurricanes.
2nd, I'll just ignore the politics comment. It's entirely subjective, not sure where that comment even stems from.
3rd, The brightline development project is and unprecedented project in Florida. It's connected all 3 large south Florida counties and extending to Orlando and Tampa, and its very affordable. The part that people miss is its privatized resulting in the tax burden not being as heavy. This is just one example with a few other big projects in mind.
I say that to say, Florida has a great opportunity to be a great city in 15 years. I don't think it's NYC or anything like that nor is it trying to be.
Pretty much every person who comments says Florida insurance premiums are rising by like 2-3x in the last couple years. And that will only get worse. You don't seem to be grasping that extreme weather events are going to get worse , not better. Yeah, Hurricane Andrew was really bad... but it was also relatively isolated. When you're getting hit with one or two of those types of storms every year, when they're a fact of life and not just something you worry about every decade, that is when I start thinking to myself "maybe this isn't the best long term market to be in."
OK so the privatized high speed rail isn't costing taxpayers... but it will cost users. Which is great, nothing wrong with that and a lot that is good. But if it's going to be extremely expensive to help pay its construction costs, it will naturally price out lots of users. If it isn't being widely utilized, then who even cares that it is there? One of the great things about mass transit is that when it's cheap, it integrates markets and communities. Generally they're cheap because government (e.g. taxpayers) subsidize it, and the secondary benefits and social savings they generate more than make up for that cost. Fine, the average taxpayer doesn't want to be on the hook for a service they won't use, that's fine... but that means that service isn't driving any benefits. Why have it in the first place, then?
EDIT: Wanted to mention the fact that the Brightline Project is heavily subsidized by taxpayers. Hell, the project was sued by a few Florida counties for this exact reason, that by allowing the company to issue tax-exempt bonds under the aegis of a Florida issuing agency, was effectively shifting some of the costs of the project to the public.
Agree with Pittsburgh, been trying to invest on a personal level for a while there.
Rust belt around the great lakes with plenty of water and established infrastructure 50 years from now will see a big reverse Sunbelt migration due to global warming, when winter avg. temp is 50 degrees in Minneapolis and summer is 120 in Phoenix and drinking water in the west has to be rationed. Florida will just be tattered hurricane ruins and California will be bankrupt if it hasn't fallen into the ocean yet. Where will the manufacturers go that consume water? Like why are semiconductor factories being built in Phoenix?
Average temp in Minneapolis from Nov-Feb is about 21 degrees. You think temps are going to rise 30 degrees in 50 years?
It won't matter if your water bill in August in Phoenix is thousands of dollars a month. Can't afford that.
Sun belt people have been fucking over future generations to keep their cost of living down for a long time now (same old story: thanks, Boomers!) but at some point it's just not possible for that kind of population density to exist in a desert without running out of water.
This is a good one to keep in the back pocket, but 50 years is a long time frame as a small time investor (that IRR wouldn't be great). I do appreciate and agree with your logic, makes sense to me. What would be some data metrics in say Phoenix/CA/Florida you'd monitor to give an indicator when a potential shift could be on the horizon? When will it be too much to handle?
Like the climate rising 30 degrees is an exaggeration, but I have done a lot of work on the water situation in AZ, CO, etc. including deep research on a company that owns alot of land and water rights out there. At some point water will become a big issue in those states and with the cost of living naturally getting more expensive from the population growth and then add on the eventual rising cost of water, utilities etc. eventually there will be a pendulum shift and midwest will be too relatively cheap and the better access to water will cause it to be a preferred place for manufacturing to locate again etc. Cleveland, Milwaukee, Detroit, Buffalo......Exception might be Illinois because it's a corrupt shithole of a state. But you could also follow my logic and you will find a few small publicly traded companies that own large amounts of water rights in the west that may also be more valuable in a timeframe much shorter than this shift.
I don't think it's quite 50. Most estimates I've seen are showing that by 2050, a lot of the SE/Texas/SW/CO will have 70-100 days a year at 100+ degree temps. Listen, the Midwest weather isn't awesome from Dec-March, but the last five years have been seen very mild winters (at least where I live). I can count on one hand the number of days below 20 degrees and the average has been in the mid-30's. Extrapolate that out, if the Midwest still has pretty good summers, better winters, no water/extreme weather issues, and the anywhere south of the Mason-Dixon is unbearable for 3-4 months out the year, a lot of the recent population shifts are going to reverse. We could be talking about Middle East type temps in Phoenix with extreme water issues. No thanks.
I like this idea of node cities that have touristy or small town attractions:
Think Savanna with proximity to GA
Truckee with proximity to SF
San Diego to an extent with proximity to LA
Tacoma with proximity to Seattle
Bend with proximity to Portland
Charleston is already happening with proximity to NYC and Major East Coast cities
With working from home and only needing to be in the office every now and then, people are moving to place they actually enjoy with airports big enough that you can get somewhere for a meeting or day or two in the office and then go back. The ability to enjoy a small fun suburban town but be able to get where you need for work if required,
PHX/Dallas/Miami already saw it with their giant airports and quick direct flights to anywhere. I have a feeling its a similar story in a few years with smaller towns. Obviously this list isn't all inclusive just examples
Sacramento with proximity to SF is another option.
Thoughts on Boise? Heard its growing a lot up there...
I'm no expert but what I've read lately suggests Boise housing market is getting hit as hard, if not harder, than any other market right now after a huge run up during the pandemic.
Idaho in general is everything Colorado was 20-30 years ago based on what I have seen.
Last I checked the median home listing in Boise was like $500k. I think your viewpoint of Idaho is outdated (pre-pandemic).
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I lived in Boise for a few years and opened up my own (small) real estate fund. Boise is a really amazing place. Really fun, clean, safe, amazing parks, and actually in the foothills of the mountains (unlike Denver). However, the Boise metro currently sucks for residential real estate investing, unless you're a developer. The market is terrible for several reasons: 1) It is way overvalued and there is way too much speculation. The market is flooded with inexperienced mom-and-pop investors who sold their $2 million house in California and bought (overpaid) for single-family houses. I have so many stories where I was outbid by terrible mom-and-pop investors. It also doesn't help that Boise was a pandemic boomtown and became unjustifiably hyped up. 2) Too much open land and a super business-friendly local and state government. South, west, and east of the Boise metro are just endless miles of flat, open desert that are just waiting to get built on. In addition, the state/local government wants the Boise area to remain affordable so that it can become a booming metropolitan area rather than let it get expensive and die off as an elitist nature town (Bend, OR). The government helps this by handing out building permits like candy, which is great for keeping it affordable but it limits true (not speculative) appreciation of existing houses.
Awesome, this is great information. Could I PM you about some other questions about Boise? Thanks.
Tampa is a great market. Miami is ok/ decent.
I am personally putting money into the Tampa market. The city has seen tremendous growth and there is a ton of opportunity for value add investments in close proximity to downtown. Many residential areas that were not so nice in the past are quickly being developed/ fixed up. Im talking properties 5-10 mins from downtown and more importantly, right next to areas being developed such as gas worx.
Example of a deal a friend did, bought property in somewhat run down area, 12 mins from downtown, 3 mins from a very popular recreational area (think lots of restaurants and a couple large luxury apartment buildings). Buy price, $350,000 + $100,000 rehab cost, 8 month rehab timeline (ran into complications), held for year leasing to tenant, sold for $850,000 recently. Rundown areas are quickly becoming nice areas that are great to live in which obviously results in huge value increase. Lots of large development in the works as well so it will only get better. Business is booming there and a good amount of MM and large business are moving there/ opening new offices.
Miami market to my knowledge is a bit harder to get into. The reason I am not such a big fan of Miami is that it is not as stable as a city/ market that is more professionally focused. Although Miami is definitely seeing a growth in big business, it is still very much so a travel oriented area/ retirement area. Not trying to dump on Miami though, could still be a great place to make money if you invest right.
The obvious answer is super wealthy ski towns like Jackson Hole, Big Sky, Aspen or up and coming ski towns like Taos etc.
As far as actual metro areas, my best guess would be rust belt legacy cities in business friendly states that are aesthetically pleasing, walkable, and full of amenities, such as Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. My reasoning for this is speculation on the next wave of people seeking affordable markets. The west coast and north east have been too expensive, which is why there was a lot of migration to the mountain west (SLC, Phoenix, Las Vegas), southeast, Texas, and Florida. However, as we have seen since the pandemic and will continue to see, these places will get too expensive and push people to go to the next affordable place. These legacy rust belt cities already have great infrastructure, architecture, amenities, etc that can attract young people wanting a more affordable equivalent to Chicago or NYC . There's so many empty historical buildings in these places that you can buy dirt cheap that if one of these cities becomes the next big thing, you could easily see 10x appreciation.
I'm also super bullish on tertiary, underrated markets like OKC, Albuquerque, Lubbock, and El Paso.
I invest in Cleveland actually. I love it, but the city is super street-by-street. Lot of aging inventory so even though you have cheap housing, you might need to put $$$ into capex . Not much stuff was built in the 1970s and 1980s. There's been a slew of new developments close to Downtown and Case Western in the last 5-10 years.
For some real numbers, it costs me about <1k to turn a unit and about 7- 10k to renovate a unit. I have a 14 unit built in 1910 and converted from a factory into residential around late 60's. I have a 22 unit that was built in 1968.
You'll have to watch out for galvanized piping.
I've been to Cleveland a couple times in the last few years and I'm amazed at the number of live/work/play style developments happening in the nicer suburbs like Beachwood, or even further out towards Cuyahoga Falls.
I'm very bullish on Cleveland long term. Good healthcare, good schools, good infrastructure, not prone to extreme weather events... once the Southwest runs out of water and the Gulf Coast is battered by 8 hurricanes a year, you'll see a demographic trend back towards the northeast
Seeing a lot of SE cities listed but no Raleigh which is surprising.
I live in Raleigh now and love it. 500k+ residents and still growing like crazy, Wake County is 1M+ residents, age group is trending downward, and pretty safe all around imo.
Any one who comments Miami obviously isn't from there, or hasn't seen what rising sea water has done/is doing to the crumbling infrastructure. The streets and neighborhoods flood completely over multiple times per year, and property insurance is absolutely skyrocketing because of it. Due to these reasons, I'm out.
Florida insurance i getting out of hand
Or rather, it's adjusting to what it should be. The idea that you won't pay absolutely astronomical insurance premiums in a state that gets hammered by multiple hurricanes a year is insane.
Any takers for Chicago? Just curious.
Wonderful city, but man the prop taxes are just so so bad that I think it ends up eating into most/all appreciation. Great city to be a renter in, but the people I know that own there aren't usually thrilled with it.
Milwaukee
Greenville South Carolina.
Nashville/CLT/Atlanta/Tampa. Sun belt in general.
why not buy out a town
Although Northern Virginia is frequently less expensive than the District of Columbia, it is still rather expensive. Northern Virginia is a region in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. It is fairly simple to commute into the city or even just within Northern Virginia thanks to the region's numerous Metro stations. The suburbs of Northern Virginia are expanding as more and more individuals venture further into Virginia in search of a reasonably priced home with a yard. Dale City, which is located near Woodbridge and has the lowest cost of living, according to City Data.
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